PA Daily | Binance HODLer airdrop launches Babylon (BABY); the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 45.2%
Reprinted from panewslab
04/09/2025·1MToday's news tips:
Japan's 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to 2.785%, hitting a 21-year high
UK 30-year Treasury yield breaks through 5.5%, hitting a new high since 1998
Moonshot launches Chicken Jockey ($jockey)
Ouyi OKX will launch PROMPT (Wayfinder) spot trading
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin longs closed at 7,500 on April 6
Regulatory/Macro
Japan's 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to 2.785%, hitting a 21-year high
According to Jinshi data, Japan's 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to 2.785% on Wednesday, the highest level since August 2004, up 22 basis points in the day to 2.715%. This gain was mainly due to investors selling the most liquid bonds amid market turmoil to raise cash. The situation is similar to a panic selling, with yields exceeding Trump's level before the tariffs were announced. In order to deal with financial market issues, the Bank of Japan, the Ministry of Finance and the Department of Finance will hold a meeting of senior officials for discussion at 15:00 Beijing time. Previous news, the Bank of Japan, the Ministry of Finance and the Department of Finance will hold a meeting to discuss the international financial market.
UK 30-year Treasury yield breaks through 5.5%, hitting a new high since 1998
The yield on the UK's 30-year Treasury bond rose above 5.5%, a new high since 1998, and rose 15 basis points in the day.
According to The Block, the Argentine House of Representatives has passed three drafts to formally launch an investigation into the involvement of President Javier Milei and related officials in the Libra meme currency storm. The coin was issued by Kelsier Ventures in February. Milei was publicly promoted on the X platform, saying it would support local startup projects. The coin price then soared to a market value of US$2 billion and plummeted more than 90%. Milei later denied his knowledge and withdrew his support, the opposition party demanded impeachment, and the prosecution has requested Interpol to issue a red warrant for project CEO Hayden Davis.
The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 45.2%
According to CME's "Federal Observation": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 54.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 45.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 0, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 51%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 45.9%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is 3.2%.
Viewpoint
When reviewing his investment experience in 2022, Tangent Jason Choi said that he was too eager to invest the entire position of $40,000 in Bitcoin, but the price of Bitcoin later fell to about $15,000. Although he withdrew in time to avoid greater losses, this experience made him realize the importance of market judgment. He mentioned that he performed well in predicting the top of the market, but still had shortcomings in judging the bottom and short selling strategies. Jason also pointed out that Bitcoin is now more affected by external factors such as ETFs and the macro economy, and judging market trends is more complicated than before. He reminded investors that "greed when others are afraid" needs to be combined with actual situations and cannot blindly follow market sentiment. Only by making rational judgments can we bring better investment results.
Economist Peter Schiff warned that U.S. Treasury yields have risen rapidly, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.5%, and the 30-year yield has risen to 5%. He said that if the Fed does not cut interest rates urgently tomorrow morning and launches a large-scale quantitative easing plan, the stock market may experience a sharp drop similar to that in 1987.
Lawrence Summers, a professor of economics at Harvard University and former U.S. Treasury Secretary, said in an interview with Bloomberg on the 8th that due to the tariff measures being implemented by the Trump administration, the United States may be developing in the direction of an economic recession, which may cause about 2 million Americans to lose their jobs and each family will face at least $5,000 in income losses. Summers said Trump's tariff plan will face "very important choice" in the coming weeks. These tariff plans even exceeded the 1930 tariffs, which “intensified the Great Depression.” Summers believes that it is wise to "revoke the already announced policies." He also said that the challenge to the recession faced by the United States this time was caused by the words and deeds of President Trump and his administration. If the U.S. government abandons its "policy mistakes", the economy will return to normal.
JPMorgan said the probability of a recession digested by stocks closely related to the U.S. economy has soared to nearly 80%. Meanwhile, while financial pressures may intensify, credit product investors remain optimistic. According to JPMorgan’s market-based recession indicator dashboard, the Russell 2000 index, which has suffered a hard time in its recent sell-off, currently reflects a 79% chance of a recession. Other asset classes are also warnings: the S&P 500 index shows a 62% chance of a recession, a 68% chance of a base metal, and a 54% chance of a 5-year U.S. Treasury. By comparison, the probability of an economic recession digested by the investment-grade credit market is only 25%, compared with zero in November last year.
The price of Bitcoin has fallen below $75,000 twice in recent times, and has fallen significantly from the all-time high of $109,000 set on January 20. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin has entered the "blank zone" of 70,000 to 80,000 US dollars, because the price has risen rapidly in this range before and has not been fully organized or pulled back. UTXO data shows that the supply of Bitcoin within this range is less than 2%, which means that there are fewer bitcoins circulating in the market and the price may fluctuate more violently. In addition, about 25% of Bitcoin holders are currently in a loss-making state, mainly short-term investors who have bought in the past five months. Analysts believe that Bitcoin needs to stabilize within this price range in order to take a clear direction for the next step.
Project News
Binance will remove seven spot trading pairs including ACT/BRL, ALPHA/BTC on April 11
According to Binance's announcement, Binance will stop trading of the following spot trading pairs from 11:00 Beijing time on April 11, 2025: ACT/BRL, ALPHA/BTC, BLUR/BTC, CELR/BTC, PENGU/BNB, POND/BTC, RUNE/BNB.
According to Aunt Ai, DWF Labs recently subscribed 250 million WLFIs for US$0.1, with a total amount of US$25 million. The price is 6.67 times the subscription price of the first round (US$0.015) and twice the subscription price of the second round (US$0.05). Four days ago, DWF transferred 25 million USDC to WLFI's multi-sign address and received the tokens 20 hours later.
Moonshot launches Chicken Jockey ($jockey)
Moonshot officially announced the launch of Chicken Jockey ($jockey), with a current market value of US$5.4 million and a 24-hour trading volume of US$7.8 million.
According to Aave's official governance page, AAVE's first repurchase proposal was approved with a 99.63% approval rate, and approved the Aave Finance Committee to use US$4 million aEthUSDT for about one month's AAVE repurchase. The plan is part of the Aavenomics economic model, with a full repurchase target of $1 million per week over the next six months. This is the first phase, and the updated Aave Swapper contract will be deployed in the future to support long-term execution.
BGB destruction rules are upgraded, and about 30 million BGB will be destroyed in 2025Q1
Bitget announcement shows that in order to improve the compliance and transparency of BGB and destruction plans, and to better empower the BGB ecosystem, Bitget Token (BGB) will update and upgrade the destruction plans. Under the new rules, the quarterly destruction number of Bitget Token (BGB) will be linked to the “on-chain Gas Fee”. The new destruction mechanism is based on the actual use scenarios of BGB and ensures community transparency. The "total amount of BGB used for Gas fees in the quarter" is publicly verified on the chain. Based on the destruction rules, 30,006,905 BGB will be destroyed in the first quarter of 2025, accounting for about 2.5% of the total supply. The corresponding number of BGB will be hit to the destroyed address and the records on the chain will be published after completion. CoinMarketCap data shows that BGB market value is about US$5 billion, ranking 25. The total supply currently is about 1.2 billion pieces, and it is in full circulation state of 100%. Bitget CEO Gracy Chen said: BGB is becoming an important bridge connecting centralized and decentralized ecology. By linking the destruction mechanism to actual on-chain use, the quarterly destruction number of BGB will change dynamically with real use. This update not only incentivizes wider use, but also builds a more transparent and sustainable token economic model. As the role of BGB in the on-chain ecosystem continues to expand, the destruction mechanism will also be more sustainable.
Ouyi OKX will launch PROMPT (Wayfinder) spot trading
According to Ouyi's announcement, the OKX platform will launch Wayfinder ecological token PROMPT, with coin recharge opening at 10:00 on April 9, call bidding will be held from 20:00 to 21:00 on April 10, PROMPT/USDT spot trading will be officially opened at 21:00, and withdrawal will be opened from 18:00 on April 11.
Binance will launch Babylon (BABY) and launch HODLer airdrop program
Binance announced that it will launch its 14th project on its HODLer Airdrops page, Babylon (BABY). This project improves the security of PoS blockchain by implementing self-hosted BTC staking on the Bitcoin network. Anyone who subscribes to BNB to Simple Earn or On-Chain Yields products between 0:00 on March 7, 2025 and 23:59 on March 12, 2025 will receive a BABY airdrop reward. Airdrop information is expected to be announced within 12 hours, and airdrop tokens will be distributed to user spot accounts at least 1 hour before the transaction starts. Binance will launch BABY at 18:00 on April 10, Beijing time and open its trading pairs with USDT, USDC, BNB, FDUSD and TRY. Users can start recharge BABY 6 hours after this announcement is published. The initial total supply of BABY was 10 billion pieces, the total supply at the time of listing was 10.015 billion pieces, and the circulation supply was 22.9%.
Important data
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin longs closed at 7,500 on April 6
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the largest Bitcoin long closing incident occurred since this bull market on April 6, with about 7,500 Bitcoin long positions being liquidated on that day. This is the largest single-day long closing record in this bull market, mainly due to the intensification of market volatility caused by Trump's economic policies, especially tariff-related uncertainties. Darkfost reminds investors to be cautious during periods of rising volatility and pay attention to protecting the security of funds.
"Reciprocal tariffs" shock caused global stock market value to shrink by $10 trillion.
According to statistics from Bloomberg, the United States announced that the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" seriously impacted the international capital market. Since the 3rd of this month, the global stock market market value has shrunk by US$10 trillion, slightly higher than half of the EU's GDP. Among them, the US stock market itself suffered heavy losses, and the market value of the seven major technology giants in the US stock market evaporated by about US$1.65 trillion during this period. Among them, Apple's stock price has fallen by nearly 23% in the past four trading days because its product manufacturing is highly dependent on the US overseas supply chain.
Financing
DashFun completes a new round of financing to create an AI-driven Web3 gaming ecosystem
According to DashFun, it has completed a new round of financing, with investors including Metalpha, HTX Ventures, tbv, Ledger Capital and FDES. DashFun is a Web3 gaming platform based on Telegram mini-programs. In the future, it plans to expand to social platforms such as Line and Kakao, and is committed to building a sustainable and AI-driven gaming ecosystem.
Firefish completes $1.8 million seed round of funding for Bitcoin mortgage loans
Firefish, the open market for Bitcoin mortgage loans, completed a $1.8 million seed round, with Braiins OS creator Braiins, and venture capital firm Miton participating. The funding will be used to further expand Firefish’s institutional lending program to reach more investors and high-net-worth individuals seeking to make traditional investments in the Bitcoin space.
AI cybersecurity startup Octane announced a $6.75 million seed round led by Archetype and Winklevoss Capital, the family finance office of Gemini founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. Other supporters include crypto exchange Gemini Frontier Fund, Circle, Duke Capital Partners and a group of strategic angel investors, including Balaji Srinivasan, former Coinbase CTO. The funding will be used for product development, expanding engineering teams and expanding Octane's influence.
Web3 AI project DecentralGPT completes US$3 million in angel round and A round strategic financing
Silicon Valley Web3 AI project DecentralGPT announced that it has recently completed an angel round and A round of strategic financing for US$3 million of equivalent assets. AGICrypto Capital led the investment, and Cherry Ventures, BTR Capital, DePINX, Aethir and other Web3 institutions jointly participated. The project team announced that it will accelerate the promotion of core modules such as multimodal large model support and zero-knowledge proof privacy layer research and development.
Decentralized reading platform Libraro receives approximately $1.28 million from Ayre Ventures
Libraro, a decentralized publishing and reading platform, announced today that it has received additional investment from Ayre Ventures. Since obtaining initial seed funds in October 2024, Ayre Ventures' total investment in Libraro has reached 1 million pounds (about US$1.28 million).
Crypto payment center Lyzi completes seed round of approximately US$1.4 million
Crypto payment center Lyzi completed a 1.3 million euro (about US$1.4 million) seed round, participants in this round include angel investor, Dfns founder Christopher Grilhault des Fontaines and Astek founder Jean-Luc Bernard. According to reports, Lyzi is built on the Tezos Layer1 blockchain, allowing consumers to make daily payments in retail and e-commerce environments using cryptocurrencies. Merchants collect payments in cryptocurrency and deposit fiat currency directly into their bank account. Lyzi's next step is to launch on Tezos' Layer2 block Etherlink, a layer that is compatible with Ethereum Virtual Machines (EVMs).
Blackbird Labs, a crypto catering application, completed a $50 million Series B financing, led by Spark Capital, and participated by Coinbase, a16z crypto, Union Square Ventures and Amex Ventures. This financing is used for the distribution of company equity and token warrants, which are not yet published cryptocurrencies. Founder Ben Leventhal said he raised the fund in the fourth quarter of 2024, and he declined to disclose the implicit valuation of the round. Blackbird Labs has raised $85 million since 2022.
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