Arthur Hayes: Believe it is still in a bull cycle, with the worst case Bitcoin falling to $70,000

PANews March 4th news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in his latest blog post that although the U.S. stock market index is still close to its all-time high, Bitcoin has signaled that the liquidity crisis is approaching. Based on this, Hayes believes that the U.S. stock market will experience a serious correction due to concerns about the recession. Hayes pointed out that if Bitcoin leads the trend when the market falls, it will play a similar role when it rises. With huge leverage in the system, slight financial disturbances may quickly evolve into a full-scale panic. If his predictions are accurate, the Fed will act soon. Bitcoin will be the first to bottom out and rebound, while the fiat financial system dominated by the U.S. stock market will then fall into trouble.

Hayes firmly believes that it is still in a bull cycle, so the worst case for Bitcoin is to fall back to the all-time high of the previous cycle. But he is not sure if it will fall to this level. A positive signal is the decline in the U.S. Treasury’s total account balance, which is equivalent to liquidity injection. Based on confidence in Trump's financial policies and its goals, Hayes increased exposure when Bitcoin trades in the range of $80,000 to $90,000. If it is just a "dead cat rebound", he expects Bitcoin to fall to a low of $80,000 again. If the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 index falls 20% to 30% from its historical highs, and a large financial institution is on the verge of bankruptcy, the global market may fall simultaneously, and all risky assets will suffer a setback, and Bitcoin may fall below $80,000 or even fall $70,000.

Regardless of how the market fluctuates, Hayes said it will be cautious in buying on dips, not using leverage, and wait for the final fluctuation of the global (especially the United States) fiat currency financial markets, which will drive Bitcoin to $1 million or even higher. He concluded: “Keep focused and buy bitcoin.”