Trapped in price beliefs: 90% of crypto investors' psychological black holes

Original author:hitesh.eth

Original translation: Luffy, Foresight News

People's perception of token issuance stems from evolutionary trends. In cryptocurrencies, evolutionary trends usually carry past profit memories. What matters is not only what happened in the past, but also the pattern that worked in the past. Therefore, most participants are not really betting on fundamentals, but are trying to recreate moments of making money, subconsciously chasing historical highs by repeating the same behavior.

In this market, there are participants from different time nodes:

• Some are "old players" before 2018;

• Most are groups that enter after 2020;

• There are also new on-chain users who have joined in the past three years.

These groups have different perceptions of token issuance based on their respective evolutionary tendencies. This means that their emotional interpretations and expectations of the same event are very different.

• Participants before 2018 still pursue certainty, attach importance to roadmaps, token economics, practicality and vision, and hope that the team will provide proof of work, actual progress, and preferably have real income. They are indigenous people of the ICO, and they have witnessed the changing cycles, leaning towards those growing projects.

• Participants after 2020 seek shortcuts, and most still hold tokens that KOL is "feeded". Their mentality is rooted in wishful thinking. They may not care about the essence of the project, but only focus on whether someone will take over at a higher price. Patience is limited, expectations are limitless.

• Recently, newcomers on the chain are pursuing free returns or rapid stimulation. They act radically and quickly, participating in all mining, following all trends, running around for points, and trying to hype every hot spot. But their expectations were too high, and they felt that they were less even if they made thousands of dollars. In the end, they lost money due to excessive trading, and most of them were deeply trapped in it and could not extricate themselves.

These three types of participants have three different "psychological spaces", which I call the intersubjective space.

Intersubjectivity in cryptocurrencies is not an abstract philosophical concept, but a real existence. It refers to the shared belief of multiple people, and this "collective fiction" becomes a temporary reality due to the joint actions of all.

In the cryptocurrency space, these common beliefs drive the market.

The ideas of participants in these spaces are mutually subjective. They recognize each other, hype each other, and maintain each other's views. This intersubjective nature creates a strong group, a tribal force, that acts as a positive or negative catalyst for tokens.

People in these intersubjective spaces have been involved very early. They took more risks, put more energy into it, and believed the story before it became a reality.

When the tokens are delivered, they are invested in emotions. They not only hold tokens, they themselves become the tokens themselves. They are the community. They become spokespersons for projects on social media, attracting attention, creating memes, attracting others, and constantly expanding the intersubjective space.

Hyperliquid is a typical case: early believers formed a strong intersubjective group and gained rewards through large-scale airdrops, which became evidence that "faith worked", which in turn gave birth to more beliefs and formed a cycle. Similar logic also applies to Memecoins such as BONK, WIF, POPCAT, etc., which are first driven by intersubjective energy.

In cryptocurrencies, price is narrative and a leading indicator.

If the price goes up, more people will join. But before that, someone needs to believe that prices will rise. This is where the intersubjective groups come into play.

They act before the results. They became the reason. These believers do not act in isolation, they act through interpersonal collaboration. They sell together, post together, fight together, and build a common reality together.

When others start joining, they will consider the price as a confirmation. Price is no longer just a number, but a signal. This signal will cycle back and forth, inspiring more confidence, more purchases, and more price action. This is reflexive nature.

The reflexivity of cryptocurrencies means that prices affect beliefs, and beliefs affect prices. This is a feedback loop, where perception and valuation influence each other.

Specifically manifested as:

• People buy tokens due to rising prices;

• Price rise becomes a proof of success;

• Successfully converted into marketing material;

• Marketing shapes narratives;

• Narrative attracts more buyers;

• More buyers drive prices to rise further.

But the "cause" of the price surge is much more complicated than the "effect":

• Memcoin’s drive may have been culturally derived;

• DeFi projects may be derived from revenue;

• AI agents may be derived from technology.

What they have in common is that it starts with the shared belief of a few and ends with the buying of the majority.

People entering the reflexive stage usually buy "dreams" rather than logic, which become the "exit liquidity" of the entrants in the intersubjective stage.

At this time the game appears asymmetry.

Participants in the two phases (intersubjective and reflexive stages) manipulate information, create narratives, distort facts, and expand beliefs to align others with their version of reality.

Over time, multiple realities have been formed around the same symbol. Each group has a slightly different belief. These are perceived reality, a miniature echo chamber of faith. Each group has different reasons for holding different opinions, expect different results, and exit at different moments. These microscopic intersubjective spaces create turmoil, fear, greed, and even often chaos.

Most people who are in these micro-realities will fall into extreme greed, forget the original intention of entering the market, and only remember the possible losses. When the bubble burst, they not only lose money, but also lose faith, collapse in the space they once celebrated.

The real beneficiaries of token price discovery are those who coordinate early (the process of shaping token prices through shared beliefs, behavioral resonance, and group collaboration). But even they can only make a profit if the token price is higher than their expectations for a long time, allowing them to exit confidently.

Ultimately, price discovery is not a chart event, but a coordination event. It is shaped by how humans perceive value, believe in stories, and act in sync with others.

So, you must always know:

• What stage do you are at?

• What kind of "reality" are being involved in;

• What kind of perception do you have when you think the token will rise?

The clearer your understanding of your own psychological foundation, the better results you can create for your position.