Matrixport Market Observation: Asia-Pacific foreign exchange fluctuations, policies continue to disturb the market

Last week (April 29-May 5), BTC prices showed a wide fluctuation of falling after a high consolidation. On April 30, BTC prices rebounded after hitting a low of $92,910, and consolidated at a high of $96,000-$97,000, up to a high of $97,895.68. On May 2, BTC tried $98,000 several times and began to fall after failing. The current price was stable at a wide range of fluctuations around $94,372, with a maximum fluctuation during the week of 5.36%.

ETH generally showed an "M"-shaped oscillation this week. On April 30, ETH climbed around $1,731.70 from the low of $1,800, followed by two tests on the $1,900 support level, rising to a maximum of $1,873.17, with a maximum volatility of 8.16% during the week. Currently, the ETH price has fallen back to around $1,700 - $1,800, with the current price being $1,801.72 (Data source: Binance Spot, May 6, 17:00).

Market hot spots

The foreign exchange market fluctuates significantly, and may become a new indicator of macroeconomic policy

In the past week, Asia-Pacific currencies have generally strengthened, with the exchange rates of South Korean won and RMB rising, and the Taiwan dollar has increased by more than 8% in one week. The spread between the spot and one-year forward contracts hit a 20-year high. The increase in the Taiwan dollar may be affected by the following factors: speculation about the US-Taiwan trade agreement has heated up, Taiwan insurance institutions have increased the hedging of US dollar assets, and large-scale trade has carried out US dollar exchanges.

Due to the large fluctuations in the yen due to changes in interest rate spreads last year, it is not ruled out that the fluctuation of the Taiwan dollar exchange rate is an early signal of global capital flow adjustment, and the foreign exchange market may become a weather vane for macro changes.

The purchase volume of gold by central banks in various countries slows down, and the amount of gold token minting hits a three-year high

As the central bank's gold purchases slow down, the gold market is undergoing structural changes. Data shows that gold-backed token minting volume exceeded $80 million in April, a three-year high, with the industry's market value increasing to $1.43 billion, and monthly transfers soaring 77% to $1.27 billion.

In the first quarter, the total global gold demand reached 1,206 tons, a slight increase year-on-year, but the central bank's net purchase volume fell to 244 tons, a significant decline from the previous quarter. At the same time, demand for gold ETFs doubled to 552 tons, becoming the main source of funds to drive gold prices.

Non-farm farms exceed expectations, market rebound boosts risk appetite

The latest non-farm data shows that the United States created 177,000 new non-farm jobs in April, higher than the market expectations of 138,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Despite the slowdown in growth, the performance of the job market still shows some resilience, and the market's panic about the recession has weakened.

After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded and the US dollar rebounded. The three major stock index futures rose across the board, and Dow Jones futures rose more than 1%. However, affected by Trump's "pharmaceutical" tariff policy information, the three major indexes closed down across the board on the 5th, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P ended their 9 consecutive gains.

Although non-farms exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve expects the probability of interest rates unchanged in May is 97.3%, and the market is still cautious about the medium- and long-term economic outlook. The Fed has no clear intention to turn, and the policy path still depends on subsequent data performance and the uncertain impact of tariff policies.

More information

US consumer confidence hits a new low since the pandemic, with tariffs and inflation expectations mainly dragging down

The latest data shows that the U.S. consumer confidence index fell sharply in April, with the Consultative Conference Index falling to 86.0, the lowest since May 2020; the initial value of the University of Michigan was only 50.8, approaching the lowest level in history. The market generally believes that the Trump administration's recent increase in tariff policies and its impact on future prices are the main factors that trigger this round of confidence collapse.

The high inflation expectations combined with the short-term rise in inventory has led to the risk of structural "inflated" GDP in the first quarter, and the market has turned conservative about the annual growth prospects. Enterprises' panic imports are difficult to sustain, and the weakening of core consumption momentum has become a more vigilant signal.

The Fed faces a dilemma of a combination of "high inflation + low growth". Stocks and bonds are intensifying, gold benefits from risk aversion, while crypto markets are differentiating in the game of economic and liquidity expectations.

Tariffs may drag down Mag 7 performance, AI becomes a watershed for technology stocks

Under the heavy pressure on Trump's tariff policies and expectations of weak consumption, the financial reports of technology giants have significantly differentiated in the quarter. With the continued strength of Azure cloud business and the advancement of AI strategy, Microsoft delivered a better-than-expected report card. The stock price rose by more than 11% in the week after the financial report, and its market value returned to the world's first place, becoming the only company with positive stock price growth in the middle age of "Mag7".

In contrast, Apple and Amazon are under pressure due to rising hardware costs and cooling consumption, with a total market value evaporating nearly $180 billion. Apple disclosed that tariffs brought about an additional cost of about $900 million per quarter, and Amazon lowered its earnings expectations.

Bloomberg data shows that Mag7 companies' profits are expected to grow by 21.6% in 2025 and revenues are up 9.7%, both of which are up from the previous week. AI-related capital expenditures continue to be strong, driving the rebound of chip and hardware stocks such as Nvidia and Broadcom. Although Apple and Tesla's financial reports are under pressure, overall, technology companies have shown strong resistance to stress and growth resilience.

The U.S. House of Representatives releases draft crypto-regulation to clarify the boundaries of digital asset classification and regulatory

On May 5, two key committees of the U.S. House of Representatives jointly issued a draft discussion on crypto asset regulation, intending to establish a unified federal regulatory framework, clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC, and make legal definitions of key concepts such as digital assets, blockchain systems and stablecoins. On May 6, the House will launch a public hearing to hear industry and public opinions.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sale offer or purchase offer invitation to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, and other countries or regions where such offer or invitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading can have great risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consulting a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided on this content.