Macro Outlook Next Week: The Fed is expected to sing a counter-tweet with Trump again, and the script of "Wolf is Coming" may be staged again

PANews reported on May 3 that concerns about trade tensions have been further eased over the past week. Despite mixed economic data, the unexpectedly strong non-farm report, which has also cooled down concerns about slowing economic growth, according to PANews May 3. The market's attention will turn to central bank interest rate decisions in the coming week, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In terms of economic data, the service industry PMI in many countries around the world will be released. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday at 21:45, the final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in April;

Tuesday at 9:45, China's Caixin Service Industry PMI in April;

Wednesday at 1:00, the United States will be auctioned on 10-year Treasury bonds from May 6;

At 2:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision;

At 2:30 on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference;

Thursday at 20:30, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States to the week of May 3;

Thursday at 23:00, the US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation in April;

At 18:15 on Friday, FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered a keynote speech at the 2025 Reykjavik Economic Conference;

At 20:00 on Friday, Federal Reserve Director Coogler delivered a speech;

At 22:00 on Friday, the 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby delivered a welcome speech and opening speech at a Fed event;

Fed Director Barr delivered a speech at 22:40 on Friday;

On Friday at 23:30, FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams spoke at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference (via pre-recorded video).

U.S. hard data and soft data continue to paint different economic pictures, with soft data such as market sentiment and surveys weakening, but hard data such as non-farm employment may not reflect the impact of tariffs in months or July. That is to say, exactly the same as at the end of 2022, weak data did not translate into a recession, and if Trump lowered tariffs later, a similar script could be staged in 2025.

Looking ahead to June, Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Mouth Bottle" said after the release of non-farm data: "Currently, this (referring to non-farm) means the Fed does not need to express any opinions on June policy at its meeting next week," adding that "the April employment report reduces the possibility of a rate cut in June, because only one job report was released before that." Both Goldman Sachs and Barclays postponed expectations for the next rate cut from June to July.