Let’s talk about RUP divergence signals: Principle analysis of taking the current market situation as an example & subsequent script interpretation
転載元： chaincatcher
05/06/2025·8DAuthor:Mr. Berg , on-chain data analyst
1. The principle of RUP divergence as the top signal
The introduction to RUP metrics is very detailed in the following two articles:
1. " On-chain Data School (9): Market Barometer RUPL(I) Data Introduction & Bottom-Based Application "
Today, this article will cite another more obvious example to help everyone understand RUP metrics. Simply put, RUP measures " the overall unrealized profitability of the market ."
From the perspective of chip holders, the higher the price, the more floating profits, so this indicator will be highly positively correlated with the price trend of $BTC in most cases . Once a "non-high positive correlation" trend occurs, it is a signal worth paying attention to.
In previous articles, I made detailed disassembly of the periodic tops in history from the perspective of RUP. Today we use a more macro perspective to observe the RUP of "this cycle". As shown in the figure above: I marked the market after two main ups in this cycle. The first time was when the price rose and exceeded 70,000; the second time was when the price exceeded 100,000.
You will find that the RUP priced at 70,000 is actually higher than the 100,000-hour? Why is the price higher, but the RUP has not kept up? The reasons are as follows:
1. The most important profit group in the market is often low-cost chips
2. Low-cost chips make huge profits, accounting for a large proportion of unrealized profits
3. If these low-cost chips are cashed out, it will greatly affect RUP.
Speaking of this, some readers should have fully understood: as shown in the figure, when the price exceeded 70,000, a large number of Realized Profits appeared, indicating that a large number of low-cost chips were completed and profit-taking was settled. This leads to: when the subsequent price rises to a higher position, the RUP does not rise simultaneously. Related reading resources: The significance of Realized Profit: " On-chain Data School (III): Have the dealers who absorb funds at the bottom settled their profits? 》
You may ask: " Okay, what does it have to do with me if you have made profits from those low-cost chips? " I have already explained this question in detail in the first paragraph of the previous article. Interested readers can refer to this article: " Detailed Analysis of On-chain Data: Maybe you need to be prepared to escape at any time ."
2. Future market script interpretation & planning
If we look at it from the perspective of RUP, when the market fell, I once published an article: " State Speed Update: Is the Bull Running? "
Some of the content mentioned at that time were updated today as follows:
As the price began to bottom out two days ago (I immediately posted a reminder at that time).
$BTC has seen a good "rebound" market.
" Rebound "? Yes, I would define the current rise as a “rebound” rather than a signal of a trend reversal. If you have read my previous articles, you should know that I am not optimistic about 2025. After the price surged to 100,000 for the first time, a RUP divergence signal appeared; the current market is in the orange box in the chart, and careful readers should find:
In the current market, the RUP (blue line) rises slowly than the price (black line). Therefore, if the subsequent price rebounds to around 103k, the price will hit a new band high, but RUP is likely not to hit a new high, thus forming a secondary divergence similar to 2017. What if the price continues to rise and hit a record high? Then there may be a top divergence structure similar to that in 2013 and 2021.
No matter what happens, when the price turns to a band turn, I will definitely update the RUP status here as soon as possible.
III. Conclusion
Today I once again explained the principle of RUP divergence, and also sorted out several possible trends of $BTC in the future. I hope it will be helpful to all readers!
